DTN Midday Grain Comments     05/24 11:08

   All Grains Higher at Midday

   Trade is broadly firmer with storms working through much of the Corn Belt 
again.

By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst

 General Comments

   The U.S. stock market indices are firmer with the Dow 60 points higher. The 
interest rate products are firmer. The dollar index is 20 lower. Energies are 
flat to weaker. Livestock trade is mostly lower. Precious metals are mixed with 
gold 2.00 lower. 

   CORN

   Corn trade is 8 to 9 cents higher at midday with trade pulling back towards 
the upper end of the range with storms moving through the belt again last 
night, and little other fresh news. Wet weather is expected to remain in place 
for much of the western and central Corn Belt keeping the slow pace slow with 
rising temps will help emergence in spots, and the second week a little less 
wet potentially. Ethanol margins are negative on a spot basis with ethanol 
futures unable to keep pace with corn with only slight gains this a.m. and the 
energy complex selloff narrowing blender margins. Basis has seen selling 
pressure from farmer movement. Mexico bought 113,000 metric tons on the daily 
wire. On the July nearby chart support is the 200-day at $3.86 3/4 with the 
100-day at $3.81 below that, and the with the next level of resistance the 
upper Bollinger Band at $3.99, and then the recent high at $4.00.

   SOYBEANS

   Soybean trade is 4 to 7 cents higher with trade still working to escape the 
lower end of the range with weather concerns and trade not knowing how to 
handle the MFP announcement yet. Meal is flat to 1.00 higher and oil is 30 to 
40 points higher. Crush margins remain solidly positive overall with meal still 
remaining below $300 still capping strength. South American currencies remain 
cheap at the end of harvest, with the export wire quiet this week. Fieldwork 
should generally remain slow in the near term but more progress is likely into 
next week with little incentive for farmers to push right now along with acres 
possibly shifting to corn or milo with the corn\soybean ratio the narrowest in 
8 years and the trade deal doesn't look to switch acres into soybeans yet. The 
July chart support is the $7.98 lower Bollinger Band with the $7.91 low below 
that, and the resistance the 10-day at $8.26, which we are just above, with the 
next round the 20-day at $8.31, which we are tested but failed to hold yet 
again.

   WHEAT

   Wheat trade is 10 to 13 cents higher with spreads swinging back to favor 
Chicago after narrowing the first half of the week with disease and demand 
concerns dominating along with spillover support from the row crops. Europe and 
the Black Sea area will be watched with dryness in the Volga Valley expected to 
be eased in the near term, with spring wheat planting still catching up with 
disease issues in the winter wheat from wet weather. The dollar is back at the 
upper end of the range. Hard red wheat is working into feed rations in some 
areas with the bounce in corn values. On the July Kansas City chart, support is 
the 50-day at $4.26 with the 100-day at $4.61 the next round up.

   David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne 
and a registered adviser
He can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com 
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala


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